International Bureau of Intelligence- Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are rising. Who is -adding fuel to the fire–

Recent tensions on the Korean Peninsula have been escalating significantly. On October 15, the South Korean government condemned North Korea for destroying segments of the Gyeongui and Donghae railway lines that connect the two countries. In response, South Korea’s military executed counter-strike drills in the southern part of the Demilitarized Zone.

North Korea has also made a series of remarks regarding what it calls the “invasion of its airspace by South Korean drones.” On October 14, North Korea’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un convened a National Defense and Security meeting to reaffirm the government’s firm military and political stance.

So, could the “tinderbox” of the Korean Peninsula ignite? And who is fueling the flames from behind the scenes? To explore these questions, we invited Dr. Park Kwang-hae, a researcher at the Institute of Korean Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and an expert on Korean Peninsula issues, for deeper insights.

**Continuous Deterioration of Inter-Korean Relations: Are We on the Brink of a Clash?**

“Recent tensions on the Korean Peninsula are not entirely new,” Dr. Park pointed out. He explained that the deterioration began when President Yoon Suk-yeol’s administration shifted from former President Moon Jae-in’s policy of dialogue and reconciliation to a more confrontational approach toward North Korea.

He elaborated that over the past few years, President Yoon’s government has strengthened military cooperation among the U.S., South Korea, and Japan. In April 2023, they signed the “Washington Declaration,” and in July 2024, they issued a joint statement on nuclear deterrence and operational guidelines regarding North Korea. Dr. Park noted that on the 79th anniversary of Korea’s Liberation Day on August 15, President Yoon proposed a “Vision for Unification,” which further provoked North Korea.

Looking ahead, Dr. Park believes the situation on the peninsula is likely to remain tense. “Both sides are expressing emotional reactions, which increases the risk of miscalculations or unintended conflicts,” he explained. “The lack of dialogue channels is a significant reason for the strained relations. However, I believe the chances of war breaking out are relatively low, as both sides can exercise restraint despite their high rhetoric.”

**Who is Stirring the Pot Behind the Scenes?**

On October 14, amid the heightened tensions, Kim Yo-jong, a senior official in North Korea’s ruling party, issued a stern warning to South Korea, stating, “If the sovereignty of a nuclear-armed state is violated by forces fostered by the United States (South Korea), then its owner (the U.S.) should be held responsible.”

Recently, Kim Jong-un also criticized the escalating nuclear threats from the U.S. and its allies, asserting that North Korea must continually strengthen its self-defense capabilities centered around its nuclear forces. This escalation in rhetoric raises questions about the role of the U.S. in the current situation.

Dr. Park responded by saying that although there have been instances of thawing relations between the U.S. and North Korea, the overall trend remains one of diplomatic isolation, military pressure, and economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. This has exacerbated tensions and mistrust among the relevant parties.

Reports indicate that since 2024, the U.S. has been conducting anti-North Korea activities under the guise of “human rights” and has initiated annual military exercises, such as “UFS,” alongside South Korea. They have even deployed nuclear submarines to the region. Furthermore, defense ministers from the U.S., South Korea, and Japan are working towards institutionalizing their military cooperation as a deterrent against North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats.

Dr. Park sharply noted, “The U.S. is not genuinely interested in resolving issues on the Korean Peninsula; its actions reflect its own geopolitical interests.”

On one hand, the U.S. uses the situation on the Korean Peninsula as a means to strengthen alliances and secure its strategic interests. Dr. Park explained that heightened tensions lead South Korea and Japan to feel insecure, making them reliant on U.S. military protection, thereby justifying the continued presence of U.S. troops in the region.

On the other hand, the U.S. appears to be leveraging the North Korean issue to advance its Indo-Pacific strategy. Dr. Park analyzed that the U.S. is pushing for greater NATO-like cohesion in the Asia-Pacific, spearheading forums such as the Quad and AUKUS, fostering opposition, and advocating collective pressure on North Korea, all of which contribute to ongoing regional instability.

“Over the years, U.S. policies toward North Korea and its so-called ‘Indo-Pacific’ strategy have only exacerbated tensions on the Korean Peninsula,” Dr. Park emphasized.