Fashuo’s market warms up first, TSMC’s market value hits NT$27 trillion

On October 11, TSMC’s stock closed at NT$1,045, rising NT$25, pushing its market capitalization beyond NT$27 trillion (approximately US$840 billion). This increase of around NT$650 billion from the previous trading day’s market cap of NT$26.45 trillion marks a significant rise in value ahead of the company’s upcoming earnings call.

Foreign investors continued their buying spree on October 11, purchasing over 14,000 shares of TSMC for six consecutive trading days, suggesting they are positioning themselves ahead of the earnings announcement.

TSMC is scheduled to hold its earnings call on October 17, with analysts predicting that the company’s fourth-quarter revenue in U.S. dollars may reach an all-time high. Estimates indicate close to a 10% quarter-over-quarter growth in dollar terms and double-digit growth when calculated in Taiwanese dollars, although actual figures will be confirmed during the earnings call.

Analysts believe that TSMC’s overall revenue growth in U.S. dollars could exceed the previously estimated upper limit of 26%. In July, TSMC provided a forecast stating its dollar revenue growth for the year would fall between 24% and 26%, narrowing it from an April forecast of 21% to 26%.

Regarding gross margins, analysts estimate that TSMC’s gross margin for the fourth quarter could surpass 55%, with this figure expected to represent the lower end of their future projections.

Additionally, TSMC recently provided its third-quarter revenue forecast, estimating U.S. dollar revenue between US$22.4 billion and US$23.2 billion. This projection represents a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.6% to 11.4%, averaging 9.5%, as the company aims to challenge historical revenue highs. TSMC’s financial forecast is based on an exchange rate assumption of NT$32.5 per US dollar, though recent fluctuations in currency values could affect these estimates.

In September, TSMC reported revenue of approximately NT$251.87 billion, marking a 0.4% month-over-month increase and a 39.6% year-over-year increase, achieving record highs for the month and contributing to a total revenue of about NT$759.69 billion for the third quarter—setting a new quarterly record and the first time surpassing NT$750 billion in a single quarter.