CNN- Hamas leader dies, experts say war against Israel will escalate_1

During a recent demonstration against Israel at the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh drew attention as he looked up while supporters rallied around him. In an interview with CNN, Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, shared insights into the implications of Haniyeh’s death. He suggested that this event could escalate the long-standing conflict between Hamas and Israel, as the group’s methods evolve in response to leadership changes.

Ibish emphasized that while Israel and Hamas are engaged in unconventional warfare, there seems to be a fundamental misunderstanding regarding Hamas’s intentions. He argued that the group aims to wage “an indefinite insurrection against the Israeli military in Gaza.”

He stated that Hamas’s operations are just beginning and are shifting towards a format comprising small, decentralized units of guerrilla fighters rather than relying on a centralized command structure. According to Ibish, these changes mean that Hamas may survive using low-end, less sophisticated weapons such as handguns, small machine guns, and even homemade improvised explosive devices (IEDs). He noted that under harsh conditions, Hamas has the capability to function effectively because “their people are willing to die.”

Drawing parallels to past conflicts, Ibish pointed out that other nations have faced similar challenges when fighting non-state actors. He referenced the Soviet experience in Afghanistan, the Vietnam War, and even Israel’s own 1982 invasion of Lebanon, which aimed to expel the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) from Beirut but inadvertently led to the emergence of a more formidable Hezbollah.